Intensifying War of Words Involving Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Triggers Concerns of Military Confrontation

Mounting apprehensions have emerged about the chance of warfare between East African neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

Red Sea coastline
Ethiopia and Eritrea cooperated in the civil war in northern Ethiopia but they have later become estranged.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in the previous year that his government's access to the sea was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a military clash erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and implied the intention to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of losing access to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on social media from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that attempts to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, national TV has broadcast completion events of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle occurred, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their common border, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations remained at in dispute.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a decision that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have later worsened once more.

Edward Moreno
Edward Moreno

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in the UK betting industry, specializing in odds analysis and responsible gaming.